Should Hero call or fold to the riv jam?
I would be flatting IP in the CO with something like this:
On the flop, I would be floating the 1/3rd pot size c-bet with:
JJ, 77, AQ, AJs, ATs, KQs, KTs, QJs, QTs, JTs, T9s
Whenever SB 3bettor checked turn, I would bet:
JJ, 77, AQ, AJs, KQs, KTs, QTs, T9s
On the river after 3bettor checked again, I would probably view his range as capped at AQ, but probably a lot of weak Aces. I would jam with(taking blockers into account):
JJ(3), 77(3), AQ(8), AJs(2) = 16 value combos (Maybe 18-20 depending on how many combos of 89s I flatted pre)
KQs(4), KTs(3), QTs(3), T9s(3) = 13 bluff combos
If villain is bluffing at a 100% frequency here with the obvious bluff combos, then Hero will win appr. 45% of the time calling here and only needs to be good 35% to break even. So given this, I would call here. Do you guys agree with my conclusion?
Note*: I know you guys would probably defend slightly wider or slightly tighter from the CO, but I feel the differences wouldn't be great enough to effect the results too much. It would probably only help my case for calling if there is extra hands like KQo or T8s.