BB: $16.16 (Hero)
BB wins $5.92
Rake is $0.28
Villain: 21/15, Bu open 26%, cbet F,T,R: 58,53,50 2.1k hands
Preflop standard flat, my calling range vs 2.5x looks like this: 88-22, A9s-A6s, K9s-K2s, Q9s-Q2s, J9s-J4s, T8s-T6s, 97s-96s, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, AJo-A3o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o
On the flop vs this big cbet I'm not gonna X/R because this board is just too good for villain and his range, especially when he plays this tight form BU. The only value hand on this flop would be QJo because even AT and KT is too weak to be raised for value on this texture but it doesn't make sense because our hand is not vulnerable on this board and villain would fold majority of his hands with which he would otherwise continou on the turn, I also expect him to continue on majority of turn with majority of his range given the cbet sizing and texture so I can slowplay and still get lot of chips from him.
The question is, how wide shall we call this cbet on the flop? I would call any AX, two pairs, straight and any QXs and JXs with bacdoors flush draw. Should also call with KQo and KJo IMO as I block top of his range and his nuts, what about KXs with backdoor flushdraws? If I call all this, it's like 53%....but this seems way too wide given the villain and the board.
If I give villain this cbet range given he open roughly 26% on BU and uses this big cbet sizing: AdAh, AdAc, AhAc, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, ThTs, ThTc, TsTc, QJs, AdKd, AhKh, AdQd, AhQh, AcQc, AhTh, AcTc, KhTh, KsTs, Qd9d, Qs9s, Qc9c, Jd9d, Js9s, Jc9c, Qd8d, Qs8s, Qc8c, Jd8d, Js8s, Jc8c, QJo, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AhKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, AhTs, AhTc, AcTh, AcTs, KdTh, KdTs, KdTc, KhTs, KhTc, KsTh, KsTc - simply AQo+ for value and some gutshots with BDFD as bluffs (not many bluffs in his 26% opening range unless he turns made hands into bluffs)
I guess vs his very tight range with little bluffs on this flop I should defend only ATo,KTo,AJo,KQo,KJo,QJo, QXs with backdoor FD, JXs with bacdoor FD, not even AXs with backdoor FD have enough equity vs villains range - we need roughly 31% equity vs his bet + we won't realize all of this as we are OOP...
How shall we construct our flop defending range on flop like this? Shall we be realy that nitty?
On the turn...what would you do here with our hand?
I was thinking about X/R on the turn as my only value hand...would therefore have to balance it with something which is pretty hard on this board and with my range.
Would use those QcXc and JcXc as bluffs but I'm not even sure if it's good to call with them on the flop+those hands seems too strong to work as bluffs, we could even call reraise shove on the turn with them....
Would you ever X/R on this turn or is it ok to just X/C vs this sizing giving the ranges, villain and action in the hand ? This board is so goo for villain that we can expect firing on the river very often and our hand is still not too vulnerable even tho FD came on the turn - villain most like has made hand, we can be scared of pairing of the board tho.
Pretty hard hand imo, I guess we should be very nitty here and maybe X/R on the turn sometimes with QJo..
Villain had AhKd BTW, pretty nitty vilain...