Bet Sizing When You're Good

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Bet Sizing When You're Good

With the nuts or second nuts - where you're confident you're good... How do you change your bet sizing on the turn and river?

Hand last week where I flopped top set of J's, and I rivered the nut full house (J's full of 8's). Against the guy who's a very solid reg, since I'm first to act on the river, I tanked a bit and then bet roughly 2/3 of the bet (~$75). I was trying to look nitty and make it look like I was bluffing - and he smiled and folded and added: "Don't worry, your AK was good there." I laughed it off and acted surprised, so I think that's what he actually put me on (neither paired the board). So I did what I wanted, which was make myself look like I was buying the pot, and I'm guessing based on the action he had a combo draw that missed so he just couldn't call, but if I had priced him in a little better maybe he calls and I make more off of my full house.

Second scenario was two days ago - I had 10's full of J's on the turn for the second nut full house. After the second J hit the turn, he checked to me and there was an obvious flush and straight draw on the board, which it turns out he had. I tanked a bit and bet roughly half the pot, trying to look annoyed at the J. The heads up guy folded with KQs (open ender and flush draw) and I still took down a nice pot ($200 or so from preflop and flop action), so I wasn't too bummed. Then the guy at our table who's made some WSOP cashes and is basically a pro, came up to me later and asked if I had K's or Q's. When I told him I had 10's full, he looked genuinely surprised and said I did a good job of making it look like I was annoyed at the J and was trying to get someone off their draw with my bet size. We talked about how tough of a situation that is in a straight cash game when you want to price someone in, but disguise your hand at the same time. He said if I was playing against a better player they probably recognize that and call there because they think they still have a shot at the pot if either flush or straight hits. He said I just priced this guy out, even though he had a lot behind, so you gotta know your customer.

So my question is, in situations like this where you're 99% sure you're good, what factors affect your bet sizing? Are you more leaning toward looking like a bluff hand / I want you to fold hand (Preflop both times Ax, AK, KK, QQ etc. were definitely in my range as I opened and didn't get 3 bet - and they all would've probably missed), or value betting and trying to price them in? How do you vary those factors?

In both scenarios I did a good job of disguising it, but now looking back I wish I would've just priced them in a little more. I appreciate all feedback.

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