Bovada 400nl: River raising spot blind vs blind

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Bovada 400nl: River raising spot blind vs blind

At first glance, villain appears to be reggy, but since Bovada is anonymous it's hard to say...

Villain opens sb (100bb effective) 3x and I flat BB with A2hh

Flop: Td 3h 2s

Villain bets 4bb into 6bb and I flat.

Turn: 5d

Villain bets 8bb into 14bb and I flat again.

River: Jx

Villain bets 16bb into 30bb...

I think this is an extremely effective spot for bluff shove.

My question is as follows: If we have a perfectly polarized range, then we prefer to jam and make him indifferent to calling. If we decide to shove we are laying villain almost exactly 2-1 and thus should have 2 value bets for every bluff. Initially when I thought about this spot I determined that I can plausibly have 34 combos JT or better thus I should be shoving 17 combos of bluffs. However, this is not a perfectly polarized range as JT/22 beat relatively few things with which he will actually call. Is this a spot where I need to construct multiple ranges, one that jams and one that raises a smaller amount? How do you determine whether your hand is sufficiently nutty enough to be included into the value jamming portion of your range (if it beats 50% of his b/c range possibly)?

Just wanted to get a new perspective on this situation. Thanks!

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