CO: $49.20 (Hero)
Rake is $1.17
villain: 24/15, 3bet 6, 4bet oop:0 - quite small sample for spot like this- 296 hans
Preflop I'm 3betting as I want to isolate weak player and SB overcalls.
I wonder what his range could look like - I think it can consist of something like 99-JJ, maybe more lower pocket pairs as we are deep and his implied odds are good if he hit set and some suited broadways like AKs,AQs,KQs??? What solid players overcall with in those spots? I think we can discount monsters - QQ+, imo most players just 4bet with them.
The flop is pretty good for my hand and my range. I decided to cbet for value, could also choose bigger sizing - like 66% as villain can have quite a lot of equity if he overcalls suited connectors preflop.
When I get X/R on the flop I guess I have to call as villain can often do this with his strong/combo draws and he doesn't have QQ in his range IMO...the best hand he could have here is something like QTs (1combo) or TT, maybe even 88. I don't block his bluffs with my hand + I block some of his value range.
OTT I decided to call again with intention of calling down on blank rivers. Paired turn is good for me as it's now less likely villain has TT + I can sometimes get fullhouse on the river. On this turn I think that big part of villains range gonna be combo draws because his value range is blocked a lot.
OTR - river is pretty bad and I think villain wont have too much bluffs here. If he had AKs, he has straight now, he still can have TT,QT,88, possibly something like AT of hearts? Many of his possible bluffs improved to either very strong hand/nuts or at least a pair given his range should be PP and broadway heavy. I also don't think players on these stakes turn made hands into bluffs too often. I guess villains just have nuts too offten to call here. AQ on the other hand is quite decent bluff catcher here, I won't have many better bluffcatchers...
What would you do in the river?