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Cold Calling 22 in LJ - Specific to Live Dynamics

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Cold Calling 22 in LJ - Specific to Live Dynamics

Live 1-3, $500 Cap

Weak Reg opens to $15 UTG 8-Max playing $500 Eff. Kinda weak that is cold calling 4-5x open raises from an UTG player with AJo from the SB. Can be kind aggro post in spots with blockers and stuff. (seen a spot where he defend bB vs a HJ or CO 4x open w A7o then proceeded to check raise a monotone flop, barrel turn and riv w blocker)

Hero has 22 LJ playing $520 Eff
Blinds in situation aren't terrible, seem like semi-thinking fish, definitely aren't squeezing light, and still likely to be substantially worse than you would see in an online 25-50NL table for example, $520 and $400 respectively

HJ is $225, 30 year old who is unknown, some type of recreational who is very likely not to squeeze light, as most live players won't
CO is $450, some type of recreational who again will not squeeze light, when I say won't squeeze light, alot aren't even squeezing AKo here anywhere close to 100%, or maybe not at all
Bttn is $450, 45-50 year old talkative fish, unlikely squeezing at all without big pair or AK

I pretty much auto folded here, as I thought it was super close even without the presence of light squeezers, as going mult way and flopping bottom set can be quite hazardous. But I still think I should be calling here. As even if it goes multway, say we get 2 callers behind, we only need to make 5x our $15 investment to breakeven. so in a $60 pot we need to make back like $75, which seems quite easy, and we can still make alot vs two pair and strong top pair in this scenario, and that should compensate for the times we get oversetted.

Thoughts? This may be hard to understand if you haven't played much live, but implied odds exist in live like they don't in online games pretty regularly

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