I tried simulate mathematically how much are my winnings in every possible scneario, putting a standard range of 15% 3bet, and calling my jam with 77+ AJs+ AQo+, and a 33% open raiser range at btn for me.
This would be a BTN v Blinds situation.
I had in consideration every posibble scenario:
A) I open raise BTN, he 3bets me, and i fold
B) I open raise BTN, he 3bets me, i shove, he folds
C) I open raise BTN, he 3bets me, i shove, he calls
I could be missing an hypotetical scenario D) when i open raise the button, and he just fold the blind. But i want to focus in the moment that he did 3bet me.
I did some maths with differents push ranges in my side, and the conclusion that i took was that his folds are not making a big difference, the big part of my winnings are from the equity oof my rangue against his calling my shove range.
More tight i play, bigger are my winnings.
Is this the right conclusion ? or am i doing something wrong with the maths ?
I just wanna know if i am in the correct way, or i am making a mistake when i do de math.
This was my thought process:
15% his 3bet range, are 200 combos
He stacks off with 84 combos ( which is 77+ AJs+ AQo+)
He folds to my shove with 116 combos
116combos*8.75bb´s = 1009,2 bb´s ( these are my winnings when he folds my shove)
Supposed that i have a steal BTN of 33.63% (22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,A2o+,K9o+,QT o+,JTo,T9o,98o), are 446 combos.
NITTEST PUSH RANGE
I shove 62 combos (TT+ AQs+ AQo+)
54.15% is my equity against his call range
I am folding 384 combos when he 3bets me --- 2bb (my OR) * 384 = - 768 bb´s
80.75bb´s total pot * 0,5415 equity - 38bb my investment = 5.72bb´s i am winning with every call ---- 5.72 * 84 combos who calls me = 480, 9945 bb´s is what i win against his entire range
Losses 768 bb´s
Winnings 1490,2 bb´s (1009,2 when he folds + 480, 9945 when he calls)
Difference + 722, 2 bb´s
This would be the final result.
Am i doing something wrong ???