Dry board, Overpair river...Set or nothing spot

Posted by

Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Dry board, Overpair river...Set or nothing spot

Blinds: $2.00/$4.00 (5 Players) UTG: Heinrich_le: $400.00 (Hero)
CO: OMDlituanie: $518.94
BN: THOMSIN: $400.00
SB: Real.FR: $494.50
BB: MrNasriMaco: $460.38
Preflop ($6.00) Heinrich_le is UTG with A A
Heinrich_le raises to $10.04, OMDlituanie calls $10.04, THOMSIN folds, Real.FR calls $8.04, MrNasriMaco folds
CO is reg, very low flat % overall: On Co after 59 hands 0, and Mp 4% and btn 9%, but very high 3bet on those positions, above 12% Mp,CO and Btn. I saw him squeeze A2s once, and 3bet 44 vs semireg deeper CO.
Flop ($34.12) T 2 5
Real.FR checks, Heinrich_le bets $21.05, OMDlituanie calls $21.05, Real.FR folds
Turn ($76.22) T 2 5 2
Heinrich_le bets $48.32, OMDlituanie calls $48.32
River ($172.86) T 2 5 2 Q
Heinrich_le bets $122.09, OMDlituanie raises to $439.53 and is all in

So, how do we construct our range here, bet/x/f flop and turn mixed strategy with bet/ and some x/c and x/f?
We are so far ahead with our range , that we run risk into overvalueing hands like jj,qq by barreling them.
i feel villain does not flat 55,22 here, also he might 3bet QQ most likely (13% on co, 3bet). Is it enough to defend just our trips or better on the river?
even though AA=55 most likely in terms of relative hand strength. what would be possible hands for him to bluff here?

Loading 1 Comments...

Be the first to add a comment

You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.

This thread has been locked. No further comments can be added.

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy