Actually, I came to a conclusion here. Folding flop is a mistake. I think we can call flop, and fold to a large turn jam/bet. But as for flop, I think we have to continue only needing 22% ($125/$550).... it matters alot that on our 5 outs against QJ(6/A), we have pretty good opportunity to win his entire stack. So even though it's marginal on flop, we win 4.5x our call on turn when we improve very likely, and there's just too much a chance that he has some overplays on flop to just fold there. It's possible we make a mistake by folding to a turn jam, but I think much less than on flop.Live 2-5
A few notes on this villain: he is like 60's, and plays in room quite regularly. He is a bit on the splashy side, in the sense he can overplay sometimes, can bluff, and likely calls off his chips much too light.
Also have a note that I saw him 8x KK preflop, and use other large sizings pre like 6-7x. Also saw him 2x once and fold to my squeeze.
Generally table has been quite splashy and large sizes has been the norm preflop, with lots of big 3bets coming from a splashy reg at the table.
Described Villain makes it $10 LJ playing $700 eff
HJ fish who has been stacked a couple times already calls and is $1100eff
Hero has AA on button and makes it $50 $1100 eff
folds to LJ who calls, HJ calls
Pot = $150
checks to us, we cbet $75
LJ raises to $200
I don't think he has JJ/QQ in range, but think he can have QJo and 66 in range. I don't anticipate KT to play like this often, and think it's possible some AQ gets in there, however we do block it and I'm guessing it doesn't play like this 100%, so maybe 3 combos?
I think with KK I would flat and call off on turn/jam if check too.
With AA, I'm unsure, because we block his most likely hand he would overplay.
When I plug into flopzilla, on flop we have around 35-39%(depending on range you give him), and we need around 22% to continue. However, if we anticipate we will likely be facing a turn bet very often, and probably have to fold if it's a jam, I don't think we realize anywhere near 100% of that. If 80% of his range is ahead of us, then maybe we only realize like 50% of our equity, and maybe even less, so that 37% looks alot more like 20% or so.
All this considered, I made a tight flop fold. I would look to defend KK mainly because it unblocks AQ, and gives him significantly more room to be overplaying hands like AQ.
It's strange to me, because it appears we have the equity to continue, but I think it's not the whole picture because of there being turn action to consider.
Not super confident about this fold here, hence I share it now.
It is possible I can call flop, given we may be ahead of 20% of his range, and do have some equity, against QJ, and if he ever has KT in range. then reevaluate turn. Folding vs a jam, and if he bets smaller then can consider a call