Facing Aggression on the River, what should I be calling on straights and flush board? BU VS BB SRP 6 Max 10 NL Ignition
Posted by PoeticEconomist
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PoeticEconomist
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Facing Aggression on the River, what should I be calling on straights and flush board? BU VS BB SRP 6 Max 10 NL Ignition
SB: $7.32
BB: $10.73
UTG: $1.77
MP: $6.26
CO: $23.39
In game, for the nut advantage, I’d say he has more flushes in general.
In game, I bet small because we don't have enough of a nut advantage to support a big size, and we have so much equity with our hand. Furthermore, I think opponents will over defend with any diamond, so we are in great shape with Adx.
In game, by this point I forget to include K9 and flushes that made it on the flop. At the same time, I'm not sure why players would donk with their flushes on the turn.
Analyzing, realize I block the A high straight, but I don’t think he would have AK in his calling range from the BB anyway.
It's a confusing spot to me, because Ad blocks his nut flushes that would be happy to go for value on this board of course.
However, it also blocks his potential bluffing range, which would include a single Ad.
With the line he takes, I don't think he donks turn with flushs, and would let me c-bet turn again if he did have a strong flush, so I think that is why in-game I made the call here. I figured he had either 98, which would just be a 16 combos that beats more, or he could be value-betting himself with a worse pair, or turning air into a bluff.
In my post-hand analysis below, I come to a different conclusion.
On the Turn, I think he's betting a range (1st Flopzilla range down) of straights, flushes, and flush draws. I also think some players may donk sets and two pairs here for this size for protection. Last, it's possible they donk some strong OESD because when they get raised, they don't mind folding.
I'm folding any two pair without a diamond, or worse. I'm calling with my flush draws. I'm not calling with my straight draws, Therefore, I end up with this range BU Range on the River after calling his bet. (2nd flopzilla range down).
The river is a brick, and I face a 100% c-bet from the BB. I think he is doing this mostly with flushes, straights included since he donked since the turn. Finally, maybe there are some bluffs with Kdx, Qdx, etc. However, based on my ranging in Flopzilla, (3rd image, the one directly above) it appears that 71% of the time he is betting the value mentioned, and as much 28% (or much less, me having the Ad brings his amount of bluffs down to 10%) he is betting here.
In conclusion, it looks like AdAx is much too light of a call down here. In game, I think I was pretty confused by the complexity of the board, and the fact that the opponent started betting into me all of a sudden. It appears that, based in Flopzilla, that it is pretty clear that having the Ad is bad for us in this situation.
According to Flopzilla, sets appear to be breakeven against this pot sized bet. Straights would have around 50% against villains value range, since we beat sets in addition to 2 pair.
Let me know if I'm incorrect that the Ad blocks more bluffs than it does value here. I think that is the key question in this case in how it affects the ranges and how we can make a standard fold here in theory + the population may tend to be unbalanced when having airless ranges in these turn and river spots.
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