I'm not very experienced in HU sngs but I have played a ton of HU cash lifetime. Please tell me what the right thing to do is. 64 entrants, we are down to the final 2, my opponent is Kevin Saul (belowabove online), a well known tourney pro. Each match is best of 3, and in this match I am up 1-0.
For ICM Purposes, we are not chopping. 1st is 37k, 2nd is 18k (big difference).
History of match is that 1st match was he was up at first, I grinded him down and finished him off when he jammed A5o into my 88. I had been 3betting what I'd imagine would be a reasonable frequency for HU SnGs obv. I don't have a HUD for live, but nothing particularly out of the ordinary. He had been defending I'd guess somewhere in the range of 50-70% of his opens to my 3bs (could be slightly off on this).
40k chips in play, blinds are 150/300. I start the hand with 15k to his 25k.
He opens 650, I 3b A5dd to 1700 he flats. Flop is 1053sss. I bet 1800 he calls. Turn K I bet 3100 he calls. River 9.
What is the best option and why among a) bluff shove, b) check/call, and c) c/f, and possibly d) bet as a bluff but smaller than a shove.
I think I could make a case for all 4 options. I think if anything my double barrel frequency was slightly less than what might be considered standard so perhaps he views my range on the turn as slightly more polarized.