How much history / dynamic to attack capped ranges?
Posted by John Mackay
Posted by
John Mackay
posted in
Low Stakes
How much history / dynamic to attack capped ranges?
HJ: $103.55 (Hero)
CO: $104.15
BN: $64.20
SB: $65.70
BB: $25.50
UTG: $32.80
CO: $104.15
BN: $64.20
SB: $65.70
BB: $25.50
UTG: $32.80
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
J
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO folds, BN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB folds
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO folds, BN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB folds
Flop
($3.75)
J
5
4
(2 Players)
Hero bets $2.50,
BN calls $2.50
Turn
($8.75)
J
5
4
T
(2 Players)
Hero bets $6.35,
BN calls $6.35
River
($21.45)
J
5
4
T
A
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN bets $10.50,
Hero raises to $93.20, and is all in,
BN folds
Final Pot
Hero
wins $40.35
So i am looking to analyse a few spots that occur and work out whether i am being to optimistic with my bluffs. Villain in this hand has a wide call otb, and a reasonably standard fold to C-bet. For this reason (plus i have a blocker) its pretty hard for him to show up with KQ here. Only way would be a float by KQdd or KQss, which i don't expect him to do all the time. Also his 1/2PSB otr is not the standard size that unbalanced low stakes fish take with the nuts when checked to. Now i expect him to have AJ here a decent amount, and its gonna be tough to make him fold that, which could be the thing against this play imo. Kinda expect him to raise sets by the turn given the number of draws and our stack depth.
What kinda stats / tendencies would you be looking for when making this kind of river plan for a villain???
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