Interesting spot(But I have the nuts)

Posted by

Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Interesting spot(But I have the nuts)

BN: $100
SB: $49
BB: $108.46
UTG: $97.85
UTG1: $134.77
UTG2: $42.80
LJ: $215.47
HJ: $199.93
CO: $47.50
Preflop ($1.50) (9 Players)
Hero was dealt A A
UTG folds, UTG1 calls $1.00, UTG2 folds, Hero raises to $5.00, HJ calls $5.00, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG1 folds
Flop ($12.50) 2 6 9 (2 Players)
Hero bets $8.00, HJ calls $8.00
Turn ($28.50) 2 6 9 A (2 Players)
Hero bets $17.00, HJ raises to $52.00, Hero calls $35.00
River ($132.50) 2 6 9 A 2 (2 Players)
Hero checks, HJ bets $84.11, Hero raises to $150.47, HJ folds
Final Pot
LJ wins $297.92
This opponent does not like to fold to me. He floats my cbets, raises more than usual vs me, 3bets more vs me and resteals more vs me than his average stats say he does over like 10k hands. His game plan does not seem to involve folding... I'd been playing a bit looser than I'm even comfortable with in late positions after watching an ansky video earlier in the day <3 Not sure how much that dynamic factored in, but it was 2 hours into the session. My notes say he's a bit dishonest, flatting AA IP vs my resteal (expects me to bluff "good pressure" spots?) and that he bet small to induce.

SO! I believe he turns his range extremely polarized on the turn, and both notes actually seem moderately relevant. This is a great barrel card for me to fire; it's frankly awful for his range, and if he has a set there's evidence he's willing to slowplay in order to induce more bluffs out of me so his raising range becomes even weaker. It's REALLY hard for him to have that backdoor draw too. Fortunately, the decision is super easy because I have the nuts, and anything he's going to call a turn 3 bet with he's betting the river himself... even the flush cards are good, because even though they're the thinnest part of his range, they may induce more action out of his bluffs if he's unaware of his range, or if I understand it (I don't like to use maybes in my reads but it makes a difference). On the river I decide to go for the xshove, the only thing I might lose value from by not donking is AK, or if he's willing to bet fold 66(good play IMO but maybe just folding to the donk shove is too).

I'm pretty confident I like the way this hand is played by me. The real question is how to make up my ranges on the turn. What do I do with flush draws, bottom set, Ax?

I am thinking bottom set and Ax are quite similar(I don't believe he's often raising AK here that he's floated... not sure if I like it for thin value or not). I'm actually not confident he's going to be betting the river as a bluff.. most people can't bluff big, so I wonder if I have AK if I should just click it back expecting him to play extremely straight forward after that? get a little bit of extra value vs a straight draw at the cost of blowing off his bluffs and giving a bit of free money to his value range.

Bottom set I guess would go call call on turn and river. It just makes his range for having set a bit thinner with it's blockers, and it seems like I'd be valuecutting myself to come over the top ever vs that range? I guess it would add weight to my range if I was bluffing this way and I thought he was reacting based on whether or not I ever showed up with bottom set, but that kind of leveling frankly does not happen at these stakes, and even if it did I'm not very good at managing my own range to be honest.

Flush draws are interesting.... because if i get called shoving he's ALWAYS got a set... so that leave me 15% equity ($60 ev) and I'm shoving 170 to win 100 so it becomes one of those tendency guessing games. Does his range consist of 55% folds? He's got 9 combos of flopped sets + 4 potential combos of flopped straight draws(Don't really think it's in his range though that often, even deep, and player specific[he's 16/12 though he does look for spots]. So I'm going to call it 2 combos of straight draws that make it to the flop, and 1.5 that play it this way?) Then he's got a ton of pocket pairs. so I'm looking for him to have 8.5 combos of bluffing pocket pairs for my flush shove to be profitable... And I think there are more than that but it's probably close.

Ax feels like a pretty solid call on the turn. Normally it seems like it's be easy enough to call the turn, and xfold the river with AJ,AQ, and call AK. I'm a bit uncomfortable here so I'm just throwing in some folding the river with the bottom of my range to lean a bit towards what I assume is a bit more balanced. I clearly have a range that continues the river and I'm not really worried about being exploited, but I don't know what the hell he's going to be thinking about me on the river. Don't even know if he bluffed the river for sure, because 66 could easily find a bet-fold there.

Loading 1 Comments...

Be the first to add a comment

You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.

This thread has been locked. No further comments can be added. uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy