Jamming range facing large squeeze

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Jamming range facing large squeeze

1 limp UTG FR
Hero raise HJ to 4.5bb w TT
CO Recreational calls
Bttn Reg w 97bb makes it 16bb
folds to Hero who jams

Can someone please check my math here?

24 occurrences we risk 92.5 and lose 82% of it
(24x92.5)*.82 = loss of 1820.40

On the other hand, we risk 92.5 and win 18% of the whole. So 92.5+97+4.5+4
(24)(92.5+4.5+4+97)*.18 = we win 838.08

For a loss of -982.32 when called by JJ+

Against a folding range of AQ, KQs, AJs, KQo(6), AJo(6), TT for 37 combos
(27.5 is comprised of 1.5 in blinds, 1bb for limp, 4.5 for my raise, 4.5 for call, and 16bb for 3b)
We win 27.5*37= 1017.5 money won from folds
1017.5-838.08 = +$179.42 in EV

So jamming here should be okay?

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