The Game Plan

KT TP vs LRR and Overbet Flop

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

KT TP vs LRR and Overbet Flop

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $37.02
SB: $32.34 (Hero)
BB: $67.23
UTG: $46.78
MP: $12.92
CO: $33.14
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is SB with K T
2 folds, CO calls $0.25, BN raises to $1.10, Hero raises to $3.60, BB folds, CO raises to $7.00, BN folds, Hero calls $3.40
Flop ($15.35) 4 T 9
Hero checks, CO bets $26.14 and is all in


I am curious what you think about this hand.

The limper was a 45/13 guy. after 1k hands and has 0% 4bet (sample size 50) but a LRR stat of 3
BU was a russian player with 27/17 after 70 hands which means he is most likely a regular.

If I assume BU will Isoraise

He will probably fold only A8o,A9o,ATo,KTo,KJo,QJo and K7s-K8s which will be 66 combos. This will be only around 25% (66/263).
Therefore I think this 3bet preflop might be bad. What do you think?

Equity Win Tie

CO 25.69% 24.38% 1.31% { 77-44, A7s-A2s, K8s-K2s, Q9s-Q4s, J9s-J6s, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, A9o-A2o, KTo-K6o, QTo-Q8o, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }
BU 39.54% 37.77% 1.78% { 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, A8o+, KTo+, QJo }
SB 34.77% 33.02% 1.75% { KsTs }

As played against the limp/4bet from CO I think I have to call getting 3,4/15,35 or 3,51:1 SO even if he's only l/4betting QQ+,AKs,AKo then I can call.
However since he's alos openraising 13% I think he'll have bluffs and lower PPs aswell.

On the Flop I hit TP but Villain overbets the pot and I receive 1,61:1 and therefore need 38%

Board: Tc9d4h
Equity Win Tie
CO 68.09% 68.01% 0.08% { TT-99, AdAc, AhAc, AsAc, KdKc, KhKc, KsKc, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, JdJc, JhJc, JsJc, AKs, AdQd, AhQh, AcQc }
SB 31.91% 31.83% 0.08% { KsTs }

I reduced Villains Overpairs to 50% since he also openraised a fair range and let him Cbet with any AQs with bdfd aswell.
SO you think this is reasonable or do you think that this overbet is most often just an Overpair or a set?

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