$10 UTG straddle on
I start the hand with about $650
SB: Unknown ~$400 behind
BB: Very loose and aggressive type player, has me covered
UTG/Staddle: Another laggy type player also has me covered
Dealt 5c5d in CO open to $30
SB, BB, UTG all call
Flop: As Js 7
SB, BB, UTG check
I bet $60
BB bets $110
I jam (about $560) for approximately a pot sized raise.
Curious what everyone thinks of this play. I haven't run it through any solvers or anything yet so these are just my raw thoughts on the hand:
I'm betting this hand on the flop because I should crush this board and I have position. I have all sets, all AJ, A7s and AK, AQ. I also have all nut flush draws. Also the J on the board will give me a lot of middle pair and remove a lot of typical bluffing hands from my range. I think that means a hand like 55 which I play as a check back on many board textures will get put into my bluffing range or else I risk under-bluffing this flop. Given my line and the fact that UTG is a very loose I would assume they are putting quite a few hands into their calling range otf. At the bare minimum they have any pair and FD that has connected and perhaps some broadway and lower gutshots as well.
On the turn Villain's range becomes weighted towards flushes and maybe some T8. Given that they will have more than normal flush draws in their preflop calling range (because they are very loose) I think this means that the EV of betting my sets and two pairs is going to be much lower than against a tighter range of FDs and so I will be checking these hands a decent amount, continuing with K high flush, a small percentage of my two pairs and sets and some blocker bluffs like KsQo though these can also sometimes check to outdraw. 55 without a blocker becomes something I'm giving up on.
On the river my range becomes much stronger. Villain's flushes now have to contend with the sets and two pair I checked back on the turn that have boated up. Villain's boats should be discounted because they could reasonably have check raised flop with two pair or 77 or even 3bet 77 pre. Also villain's flop calling range contains many hands that are weak pairs and some busted gutshots that will need to bluff this river. Obviously I'm jamming the sets and two pair I checked turn with so I should be bluffing here occasionally as well. The question is what are good bluffing candidates? In the hand I thought that it was very hard if not impossible for me to have any bluffs that have good blocker value here. The only ones that come to mind are hands that block A9 like T9s, 98s which I am only thinking of now. I might have bet 97s otf but likely would have checked my bottom pair so I don't think 97s is a bluffing candidate though it would be very nice to have here. These are probably my best bluffing candidates and likely I could have bluffed with just these and been balanced however I didn't think of these while in the hand. I ruled out bluffing a hand like KsQ since I don't think blocking flushes is my goal on this runnout. I don't think turning Ax into a bluff here is a good idea and would rather use it as a bluff catcher which leaves mostly the garbage that I gave up on on the turn. Because I don't really know how many hands this is and because it's also possible that I have missed some better bluffing candidates I decided to randomize my bluff to 8% bluff, 92% fold (Second hand between 12 and 1 on my watch).