Live 1-3, $500 Cap
Reg Raise HJ to $12 playing $500 eff
Hero is on Button with AJo with $500eff
SB is some type of loose passive player with 40bb eff
BB is some type of recreational player, 150bb eff, don't know too much on him. Have inside info that he is capable of spazzing out, but not sure if that info is still relevant as it was based on history from the past and not today.
I flat call the $12 with the justification of weak blinds. I usually would 3b this combo, but with two weak blinds I think the EV of this hand goes up.
Anyways, I flat call, and the BB calls as well.
First of all, if it checks to me, am I suppose to be bluffing here? It feels like if I start bluffing all of my AJo combos here, I am quickly going to get out of wack, and I think the Reg in this hand is capable of checking top pair to me. whether or not he is willing to call down 3 streets with KT or K9, I am not sure. Might be worth finding out I suppose. I would typically choose more of the JTs, T9s, ATs, AJs to begin a multi-street bluff with. I don't expect to get check raised much here, as I think the top of his range is mostly going to bet with a weak player in the pot.
So, if I have a value range that looks something like KQo(9), KJs(3), KTs(3), 33(3), I have about 18 value combos here.
As for bluff candidates, I have AJ(16), T9s(4), JTs(4), for 24 bluff combos.
On the river to make him indifferent vs a pot size shove, we would need a 2:1 ratio, so for 18 value combos, we would have 9 bluffs, which the T9 and JT fulfill, except they do block his most likely folds(KT/K9), but they also do not block his Qx combos like AJ does. I think using the T9/JT combos are probably sufficient however, as KQo is still getting 3b at some clip. And suppose KTs isn't going to just rip 3 huge bets.
But if we backstep to the flop, this is where I really have no idea. I imagine we do get to bluff more from the flop, as A)equity, B)we can make other parts of his range fold like underpairs/random pieces of equity like 78s. So my best guess is we can bluff more from the flop, and then each street we drop off parts of the bluffs until we reach the river when equity is over and we can pick the correct ratio, being more clear when there are no cards to come.
Feedback please :)