This is live 1-2. Will start with description on villain
Asian, 40's, doesn't seem to speak English. He sat down and lost a pot. Shortly after, i see him raise QJcc to $15 from EP/MP and blind shove $33 before the flop when called HU. He buys in once again short and busts. He's been very active to this point. After his second bust, he moves to a different seat and goes to the ATM and rebuys for $200
Hero raises KsKd to $10 in MP
New guy to table w $150 calls in CO
Asian guy in SB 3-bets to $30 ($180-190 effective)(villain described)
Hero 4bets to $80
SB pauses for a bit, and takes a drink of his beer, and eventually calls(it seems like he considered all options before making a call)
Flop AdJd8s Pot $163
He has around $100-$110 behind and checks
SB bets $50 and has $50-60 behind
Should we be calling turn and calling river. Calling turn and folding river. folding turn?
Based on what ive seen from villain thus far, I imagine villain can have a variety of hands that usually dont end up being in a 4bet calling range, especially facing a 40bb 4b. He obviously is thinking about the game on some other tangent, and thus wouldnt be overly surprised to see things like KQ, QJ, QQ. In hand, I though villain would probably just jam AK. I also blocked AK with my KK, so i didnt really weight him to having it very often.
After analyzing this hand after the fact, i personally think calling turn is probably good. On the river we only need like 15% to make it a break even call. So if he has hands like AQ(12)AJs(3)JJ(3)AK(1) = 17ish , he only needs around 2.5 bluff combos
17*.15 = 2.55
seeing that villain could potentially just have a hand like KQ, QQ, QJ, KJ and stick in the last $50-60 into a $280 river, I guess we just call turn and river? Against alot of players I would maybe just fold turn or river, but against someone who is mis-evaluating hand strength, and taking sporadic actions, do we just call here twice and lose alot, knowing that fundamentally we are probably going to be okay here in the long run?
If we look at it from the perspective that we are essentially calling $100 into a $160 pot(granted he always bets turna nd then follows up on the river, we need to have more like 27%, meaning he needs closer to 4.5 worse hands.
Im tempted to factor in a randomness factor here, based on his splashy nature when short as seen in previous hands, giving him a combo of 99(1), KQ(1), QQ(1.5), QJ(.5), KJ(.5), T9(.5), JT(.5) = 5.5, and there is a possibility of it being much wider. It is really close tho, so maybe from this stance, a turn fold may be warranted. very curious as to what yall think. Its just tough for me to not want to go with it here because I sometimes from these players you'll see very random actions, with hands I havent even laid out here