SB: $19.72 (Hero)
Rake is $0.78
Hello...how would you play the flop and the river?
Preflop I chose to 4bet larger because of stack sizes. My range: AdAh, AhAs, AhAc, KdKh, KhKs, KhKc, QdQh, QhQs, QhQc, JdJh, JhJs, JhJc, TdTh, ThTs, ThTc, A9s-A2s, K9s-K7s, Q9s-Q8s, AhKh, AsKs, ATo, KJo, AdKh, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKh, AcKh - 99 combos
On the flop I chose thin value/protection cbet against his range. He has something like (IMO): QQ-JJ, 99, 77, AhAs, KdKs, KdKc, KsKc, TdTs, TdTc, TsTc, 8d8h, 8d8c, 8h8c, 6h6s, AsKs, AhQh, AsQs, KdQd, KsQs, KcQc, AhJh, AsJs, JdTd, JsTs, JcTc, Td9d, Ts9s, Tc9c, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKd, AsKc so I can get some value of his weaker hands and I don't wanna give him free turns. This flop is very dry and unconnected plus my range is stronger than villains so I chose this sizing.
Question nr. 1 - what should my flop strat be? I would cbet like this with TT+,AK,A6s, A8s, - 28 combos and add some bluffs with AXs with backdoor FD acordingly - AXs,KXs,- ca 24 combos - is this ok or should it be more value heavy? Or is better x/c with my strong + middle hands ? Or is it better to x/c middle hands and bet like 1/2 with strong hands - QQ+ (9 combos) and bluff like 9 combos of strongest AXs? it seems to me like it's better cause he won't call me with enough weak hands if I bet small with mid hands and won't fold enough to have so many bluffs on the flop.
When he raised me I call,because I'm on the top of my range and he should be raising quite light versus my small cbet. He can raise with any over pocketpair and maybe even backdoor FD like AQs,AKs,KQs,AJs..Only 88 and 66 beats me here and it's 4 combos max.
On the turn I check because there's not much I can get value from + it hits his KK and it's pretty dry board. I don't want him to fold weaker hands that I can get some value from on the river like QQ,JJ maybe AK, and mid pocket pairs.
On the river I go for thin value bet and he overbet shoves 2x pot.
I was thinking about it and I couldn't find barely any bluffs. I feel like he would rather call with mid hands like AK,QQ,JJ,TT etc. and shove with nuts or nothing but I can't find enough "nothing" in his range as his range is pretty strong in this spot. When he does this I put him on range like AhAs, KdKs, KdKc, KsKc, TdTs, TdTc, TsTc, 8d8h, 8d8c, 8h8c, 6h6s - maybe not even AA....so only FH and quads and I have around 5% equity if I call.. I'm not sure he would do this with hands like AQ or AJs with intention of pushing me to fold AA or QQ....that would be too ambitious from him plus I don't think ppl on NL10 have well balanced ranges in spots like these.
To call profitably he needs to bluff at least 4 combos because I have pot odds 28% so I need at least 28% equity but I have to add rake so more like 30% to be BE.
Question is...Will he bluff enough? I'm not sure if player on NL10 is capable of bluffing with let's say AQs and AJs which is 4 combos....
How would you play this? Thanx