NL25z Bluffing with 0 Equity

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NL25z Bluffing with 0 Equity

Flop: This is a flop that the SB can check a lot and many regs will resort to range checking here. I have 6-high and an OESD and opt for a bet. Getting to fold overcards with roughly 25% equity vs. my hand is a great result. I assume that the SB PFR should polarize his range now and XR nuts (sets, TPTK, TPMK at some frequency) to go with straight draws and (backdoor) flush draws.

Turn: After the XC OTF I assume he is capped. Do we get to have overbets on a turn where large portions of our range have the incentive to bet small (Qx)? If we have at least some overbets, I guess 64s is in there.

River: The flush completing is not ideal. Since many nutted hands OTT don't want to overbet on a dynamic runout anymore (e.g. 99, 55, 33), the option is between check and 2/3-3/4 bet now I guess. There are two factors that make me wanna bet:

  1. All of my FDs have turned into nutted hands now and I still need some bluffs to accompany my value bets. This hand where I don't have a flush qualifies well.
  2. I have 0 checkback equity and 0 SDV, so I guess this makes my hand a mandatory bet?

All good? Is any logic misaplied?

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