NL30 QQ facing river overbet shove

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

NL30 QQ facing river overbet shove

Blinds: $0.15/$0.30 (5 Players) UTG: $31.06
CO: $48.63
BN: $7.79
SB: $32.03 (Hero)
BB: $44.50
Preflop ($0.45) Hero is SB with Q Q
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.90, BB calls $0.60
Villain to this point is 32/24/7 over 70ish hands to this point and was fairly aggressive overall, so I think we can rule out JJ+, AK and discount other big aces and possibly TT and 99 as well.
Flop ($1.80) 9 6 2
Hero bets $0.56, BB raises to $1.98, Hero calls $1.42
At this point my thought was a range of sets, possibly 96s, 87, and good top pairs like Q9+ (and some TT if he isn't 3b all of them pre). Also possibly some other air like 54s, 75s, T8s, etc. I opted not to 3b to let him keep barreling his bluff/semibluffs and maybe his 9s, and also if he 4bs here I'm pretty much always dead and idk if he continues his A9 type hands against a 3b. Open to feedback here.
Turn ($5.76) 9 6 2 2
Hero checks, BB bets $3.61, Hero calls $3.61
The 2 seems like a pretty good card for me. I doubt he's raising a deuce on the flop here so now I beat 96s and 22 is less likely. Again, I saw no reason to raise here, but open to feedback.
River ($12.98) 9 6 2 2 7
Hero checks, BB bets $38.01 and is all in, Hero folds
Sick bet by him on the river here. He's very much uncapped and I'm capped and he takes full advantage here. I'm pretty sure the only value hands for him here 99, 66, and 22 which makes 7 combos unless he's going absolutely nuts with TT. I think there's a chance he might get here with like 96s or 87 and decide to go for the big bluff, but I question how often he thinks the pool will fold against this bet here and how often he pulls the trigger with those when he gets here with them.

I felt like my hand was very face up here and in the moment I felt like he was fully expecting to get called here. I need to win ~40% of the time to break even, so I think this was a good fold, but I still have nagging doubts. Any feedback is greatly appreciated!
Final Pot BB wins $12.33
Rake is $0.65

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