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NL50z QQ in 4bet pot

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

NL50z QQ in 4bet pot

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $163.49
SB: $11.26
BB: $50.00
UTG: $80.60 (Hero)
MP: $86.58
CO: $66.40
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is UTG with Q Q
Hero raises to $1.12, MP raises to $4.11, 4 folds, Hero raises to $10.00, MP calls $5.89
Flop ($20.75) 3 2 9
Hero bets $9.86, MP calls $9.86
Turn ($40.47) 3 2 9 T
Hero bets $19.24, MP calls $19.24
River ($78.95) 3 2 9 T K
Hero checks, MP bets $47.48 and is all in, Hero calls $41.50 and is all in

villain 3bets 18% over very small sample, in game i made the decision to 4bet here because of this (didnt notice the small number of hands). i could also call. He runs 27/17 so i barrel on flop and turn for value as he should not have a lot of sets here, even if he 3bets light. TT is the only candidate i think, but he should also have A9 AT, JJ and AK/AQ and AJdd still in his range and we need protection and to deny him equity.

On river we hate the situation and i think Checking is the only option. When villain jams though, i tank and decide to call off, as i think most villains in this spot would just check back with KQ or AK facing a 4bet and double barrel. His valuerange than is pretty narrow i think, even with a loose 3bettor. TT, QJd and KK that slowplayed. I unblock diamonds but ATdd probably checks back. so he could have AJ,AQ,AKdd.

I need 26% to call and with this i have only 20% so guess the call is -EV

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 9d3d2sKcTh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 20.00% 20.00% 0.00% { QhQs }
MP3 80.00% 80.00% 0.00% { KK, TT, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, QdJd }

if he has just one more bluff combo though we have 27% , so something like A5dd or another random hand he turns into a bluff, so think it is close.

What so you think about these assumptions?

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