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NLZ200 top pair bluff shove

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

NLZ200 top pair bluff shove

BN: $336.05
SB: $392.13
BB: $171
UTG: $200 (Hero)
HJ: $210.37
CO: $194.30
villain is zoom regular, calls btn around 8 % (so prob more like 12 % in multiway)
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A Q
Hero raises to $6, HJ calls $6, CO folds, BN calls $6, SB calls $5, BB calls $4
Flop ($30.00) Q J 2 (5 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $21, HJ folds, BN calls $21, SB folds, BB folds
Turn ($72.00) Q J 2 T (2 Players)
Hero bets $48.44, BN calls $48.44
gets tricky here. don't want to ch call this turn, because will be hard to play a lot of rivers. thoughts ?
River ($168.88) Q J 2 T 6 (2 Players)
here gets even more interesting. i assume almost none regulars will call turn with naked FD, and no pair + fd available besides T9cc, well, and combo draws like KTcc or 89cc (expect to be raised some time this on turn).
of course simplest option is just ch/f. but what about shove ? with it i expect him to fold all two pairs (QJ, JT,QT) and 22. And, from balance perspective , if we want to have some bluffs that's one of the best hands to do it ? (besides AcAx maybe)


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