Preflop math - exploiting aggro regs

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Preflop math - exploiting aggro regs

Heyy, are you still struggling with playing 3bet pots OOP? Are you facing a 3bet too often? Aggro regs arent easy to play, but this might be a counter exploit which may work for some of you!

Lets imagine 1limper, we ISO from the CO to 4.5bb, BTN 3-bets us to 14bb, folded to us. We have for instance A5s.
To even start thinking about bluffing, we need to know that villain is pretty aggro 3bettor (or at least normal from the GTO perspective). This is just focusing on certain subset of regs whose are almost in every single pool. However, I believe that most of them are discipline enough and they are just exploiting the pool by doing so. Therefore we can expect decent amount of fold equity in case we make a 4bet shove.

Lets assume villains 3betting range from the BTN: 99+, ATs+, A5s-A4s, KJs+, AJo+, KQo = 116combos- 8,75%. Due to blocker effect, its actually 98. I expect to get called by QQ+ and AK - thats the most common calling range for stacks (some regs might fold even AK or QQ). If they are calling wider - good for us even if we lose for the first time, because we wont be bluffing anymore and start expanding our value region.
Anyway, back to the calling range QQ+,AK, which means that we have 1- 27/98 = 0,725100= 72,5% fold equity. So in 72,5% cases we will win a pot of 1+1,5+14= 16,5bb. It means that our net profit is 16,50,725 = 11,9625bb

In case we get called - 27,5%, we have 30,15% equity in a pot of 202,5bb. So our expected winnings are 202 * 0.945 (rake 5,5%) 0,3015= 57,55bb. So we have invested 100, so we are losing 100-57,55= 42,45bb in 27,5% cases = 42,450.275 = 11.67bb

To summarize: winnings 11,9625bb - 11,67bb (losing) = +0,2925
Thats solid! compared with the option of folding and losing immediately 4,5bb. The difference is 4.72925bb per hand!

Any feedback on my calcs would be more than appreciated:)

- good exploit vs aggro regs
- hard to counter exploit since your 4 / 5bet will be low in general since you are doing it only vs specific player profiles
- good feeling if it works:)

- you are attracting variance which may lead into tilt issues which may cost you much more money than you would earn
- possibly the most observant regs may start tighten up their 3betting range only vs you (nice to have vs hero stat - H2note)
- not sure if there are any others, if yes, let me know:)


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