The Game Plan

Range Composition - Street Projection - A clarification on a earlier post - Live Dynamics

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Range Composition - Street Projection - A clarification on a earlier post - Live Dynamics

Last night I shared a hand history, which to some, probably seems quite mundane. I flopped two pair and got check raised. But it really got me thinking.

Basically the situation was I raised KTs over 3 limpers. the flop came down KT3rain, I cbet 60%, the two weak players in the hand fold, and the HJ limper who is a Reg raises 2.5x on flop.

To me, given all the context of the situation, aka, how deep the players involved were, position, previous action etc. I find it plausible that all QJ gets raised pre because of how deep he was and how weak the limpers were, added to that, I bet 4-way for a large sizing on a board that is very good for my range. What I'm trying to say is, there is alot of compounding factors that lead his range further and further to be pocket 33's specifically, and alot of factors that would discourage him from finding many, if any, bluffs.

But lets say he still does manage to find some bluffs with QJo here. On the flop we need roughly 1:3 to continue. However, because his range is so narrow, we have to project that we are frequently going to be facing a lot of money going in/all the money going in on later streets. Because of this, I am finding myself confused, because there has to be an adjustment on our part.

For example. Say his range is composed of one QJo combo, and three 33 combos. If action ended on flop(and we disregard equity for a moment), we would have a breakeven call. But the amount of money we are putting in does not end on the flop, but compounds on later streets. So if his bluff ratio is 1:3, then we would have to fold because we must anticipate the future money that will be put into the pot. Say flop raise+turn bet size. So we may need closer to 36-42% equity depending on his turn sizing(flop raise+ 50%-66% turn sizing, or if shorter, a jam)

Even if we give him a 2:3 ratio, that lands us on needing around 40%.(again disregarding equity for simplicity sake)

I'm not entirely clear on what I'm getting at here, more just expressing some thoughts on a very strange scenario.

If you have anything to add, please do so.


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