Hello everyone, my first post on the forums.

Trying to learn and get better, this is not a spot that comes up too frequent, but anyway I am trying to figure out a range for the villain.

I don't have any reads on BB, stats are only 44 hands from previous and current session combined, haven't seen anything really before this hand.

Since BB calls preflop I think the range is suited connectors and smaller pocket pairs, connectors maybe going up to KQs. I am assuming a 3betting range here for BB of AQ+, JJ+.

On the flop both our ranges have sets of 88 and 44, our range not capped by PFR we have QQ also in our range. Villain calling the flop 70% bet does not cap his range in my opinion only to draws. Still I think villains range is heavily weighted towards the likes FD+GS, Q8s maybe also in there.

On the turn we get top 2, I think I should bet a bit larger here given it is now a double 2-tone board, 18-20bb would be better than 15bbs. Anyway, I think the ace now improves our range equity quite a bit and does nothing to villains range. Maybe he picks up equity with QsJs on turn or similar. Villain did instacheck turn, so in game I thought this could weight his hand towards the likes of KQ/QJ or flush draw combos.

On the river I am quite lost to be honest, raise, call or fold. In game I was not thinking about raising (leak definitely), but I think that might be a viable option also as a bluff. My thoughts in game were that I am getting way too good price to fold on river, 18% to call. If this is missed spades somehow, Qx block bet or a bluff I can't fold. Realistically I think villains range is capped to draws (combo or not) or Qx on turn. Club river would make sense to compete flush and villain value betting this amount.

Okay, that was quite much text already, maybe I have some flaws in my thinking, can someone help me out a bit on what does villain get here with on river.

Thanks a lot.

€0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

BB: 116.5 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)
UTG: 199.3 BB
Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 86.95 BB
SB: 548.05 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ah Qh
fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, BTN calls 2.5 BB, SB calls 2 BB, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop : (10 BB, 4 players) 8s 4c Qc
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 7 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 7 BB

Turn : (24 BB, 2 players) As
BB checks, Hero bets 15 BB, BB calls 15 BB

River : (54 BB, 2 players) 8c
BB bets 15 BB, Hero