River bluff spots

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

River bluff spots

Hey everyone!

I just looked up my database, and find an interesting spot.

My river cbet success is 59%
My average river bet size is 82% of pot.
This means my bluff odds is .82 / 1.82 = 45%

So I need 45% fold to break even with my bluffs, but now I get 59% fold. That's way more.
And in general I'm too value heavy in river spots. I have 4.6 : 1 value : bluff ratio, but my bet size indicates 2.2 : 1 ratio.

The first obvious thing is that I need to bluff way more.
But the fact, that my river cbets work 59% indicates that, (in theory) I can size up my bets to 140% pot, so I have 1.4 / 2.4 = 58% bluff odds?
And in practice this means, that I just have to bluff more in the right spots?

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