River call efficiency calculated incorrectly(?)

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River call efficiency calculated incorrectly(?)

(x-post from 2+2)

After seeing some numbers in my db that didn't seem to make sense I took a closer look at hands and am pretty confident HM2 calculates river call efficiency incorrectly.

I have a session where I played 1055 hands, with RCE=0.97, RCE$=$91.67 (which should not be possible, a river call efficiency of 1.00 implies you get $1 back per $1 you call on the river ie your river calls breakeven and are equal in EV to folds. Less than 1 implies you get <$1 back per $1 called and would be better off folding, but I'm up money on my river calls! I've also confirmed it's calculated in $ terms, not % of pot.) Here's what I have found on closer inspection.

1. River call efficiency stat doesn't work when you call and chop.
I filtered to just have the following hand: Pot on river is $27, villain
bets $15, I call $15 and we chop and both get $27.22 back. RCE=0 and
RCE$=-$15 which is obviously wrong (should be 1.81 and +$12.22)

2. River call efficiency does work when you call and lose

Not surprisingly, RCE=0 and RCE$=-$whatever you called

3. Most importantly, RCE is NOT calculated correctly (imo) when you call and win


Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #27750441

BTN: $200 (100 bb)

SB: $629.67 (314.8 bb)

Hero (BB): $212.46 (106.2 bb)

UTG: $233.20 (116.6 bb)

MP: $139.41 (69.7 bb)

CO: $272 (136 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 6

4 folds, SB raises to $6, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($12) J 9 3 (2 players)

SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($12) J (2 players)

SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($12) T (2 players)

SB bets $6.87, Hero calls $6.87

Results: $25.74 pot ($1.16 rake)

Final Board: J 9 3 J T

SB showed 6 K and lost (-$12.87 net)

Hero showed 6 6 and won $24.58 ($11.71 net)

I call $6.87 on the river and win the pot of $24.58. RCE = $24.58/$6.87 = 3.58.

If you're wondering why it's $24.58/$6.87 read this otherwise skip:
Example: Imagine an ideal scenario where there is 0 in the pot and we
call a $1 river bet. If we call and lose then obv RCE=0. If we call and
chop, RCE should = 1, we are returned $1 for the $1 we call on the
river. If we call and win then we profited $1 on a $1 call. 1/1=1 but
that's silly, RCE=1 implies a breakeven call. The correct calculation is
RCE=(1+1)/1=2. We are returned $2 for a $1 river call, for a profit of

And so the correct RCE for the hand above is (final pot size)/amount called = 24.58/6.87 = 3.58

HM2 gives RCE for this hand as 2.75. As far as I can tell HM2 calculates
RCE based on the money you won in the whole hand, and ignoring rake. So
in this hand I won +$11.71 in the hand, +$12 before rake and

($12+$6.87)/$6.87 = 2.75

This is obviously not the stat we're actually interested in. I've posted this on HM2 forums and sent them the hands, I'll update here if/when I hear anything.

Cliffs: HM2 is systematically underestimating the profitably of river
calls. RCE$ does seem to be calculated correctly except in the chop case
where it also doesn't work.

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