River call efficiency calculated incorrectly(?)
Posted by Steve Paul
Posted by
Steve Paul
posted in
Mid Stakes
River call efficiency calculated incorrectly(?)
(x-post from 2+2)
After seeing some numbers in my db that didn't seem to make sense I took a closer look at hands and am pretty confident HM2 calculates river call efficiency incorrectly.
I have a session where I played 1055 hands, with RCE=0.97, RCE$=$91.67 (which should not be possible, a river call efficiency of 1.00 implies you get $1 back per $1 you call on the river ie your river calls breakeven and are equal in EV to folds. Less than 1 implies you get <$1 back per $1 called and would be better off folding, but I'm up money on my river calls! I've also confirmed it's calculated in $ terms, not % of pot.) Here's what I have found on closer inspection.
1. River call efficiency stat doesn't work when you call and chop.
I filtered to just have the following hand: Pot on river is $27, villain
bets $15, I call $15 and we chop and both get $27.22 back. RCE=0 and
RCE$=-$15 which is obviously wrong (should be 1.81 and +$12.22)
2. River call efficiency does work when you call and lose
Not surprisingly, RCE=0 and RCE$=-$whatever you called
3. Most importantly, RCE is NOT calculated correctly (imo) when you call and win
Hand:
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #27750441
BTN: $200 (100 bb)
SB: $629.67 (314.8 bb)
Hero (BB): $212.46 (106.2 bb)
UTG: $233.20 (116.6 bb)
MP: $139.41 (69.7 bb)
CO: $272 (136 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 6
6
4 folds, SB raises to $6, Hero calls $4
Flop: ($12) J
9
3 (2 players)SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($12) J
(2 players)SB checks, Hero checks
River: ($12) T
(2 players)SB bets $6.87, Hero calls $6.87
Results: $25.74 pot ($1.16 rake)
Final Board: J
9 3 J T SB showed 6
K and lost (-$12.87 net)Hero showed 6
6 and won $24.58 ($11.71 net)I call $6.87 on the river and win the pot of $24.58. RCE = $24.58/$6.87 = 3.58.
If you're wondering why it's $24.58/$6.87 read this otherwise skip:
-----------------------------------------
Example: Imagine an ideal scenario where there is 0 in the pot and we
call a $1 river bet. If we call and lose then obv RCE=0. If we call and
chop, RCE should = 1, we are returned $1 for the $1 we call on the
river. If we call and win then we profited $1 on a $1 call. 1/1=1 but
that's silly, RCE=1 implies a breakeven call. The correct calculation is
RCE=(1+1)/1=2. We are returned $2 for a $1 river call, for a profit of
+$1.
And so the correct RCE for the hand above is (final pot size)/amount called = 24.58/6.87 = 3.58
------------------------------------------
HM2 gives RCE for this hand as 2.75. As far as I can tell HM2 calculates
RCE based on the money you won in the whole hand, and ignoring rake. So
in this hand I won +$11.71 in the hand, +$12 before rake and
($12+$6.87)/$6.87 = 2.75
This is obviously not the stat we're actually interested in. I've posted this on HM2 forums and sent them the hands, I'll update here if/when I hear anything.
Cliffs: HM2 is systematically underestimating the profitably of river
calls. RCE$ does seem to be calculated correctly except in the chop case
where it also doesn't work.
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