River raise coming out of nowhere and we have premium blockers

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

River raise coming out of nowhere and we have premium blockers

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (9 Players) CO: $56.67
BN: $51.90
SB: $65.40
BB: $52.04 (Hero)
UTG: $110.51
UTG+1: $51.72
MP: $42.06
MP+1: $23.64
MP+2: $87.45
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is BB with A J
2 folds, MP raises to $1.26, 5 folds, Hero calls $0.76
V: 21/12 over 108
CB flop 7/7
Flop ($2.77) 4 J 4
Hero checks, MP checks
Turn ($2.77) 4 J 4 3
Hero bets $1.74, MP calls $1.74
River ($6.25) 4 J 4 3 7
Hero bets $3.92, MP raises to $8.00
Strange line by him and lets look at some data points and from there make a decision.

FOLDING
1. This line just gets underbluffed in a vacuum.
2. Our range is uncapped.
3. His river sizing doesnt seem like he wants folds from Jx (unless this guy has got some read on me), moreover he is repping also QQ+ which kind of sucks. I would be more inclined to call vs a larger sizing since then we would be able to exclude overpairs from his value region which would make his vbetting range really narrow to A4s,JJ,77 - 5 combos, so then this combo would become a clear call
4. I havent seen this guy doing some pop exploits such as aggressively x/raising or anything like that which would persuade me that he is playing a different style from what the pool usually does.
5. There arent many natural bluffs by him playing this line, like only FDs, but given his CB so far, I believe most BDFD are cbetting this flop pretty liberally and there arent many other hands which would call the turn (maybe AQ/AK - but see how assumptive it would be to turn bluffcatcher into a bluff..), maybe A2s,A5s, but again, they are more of a bluffcatcher since he usually beats my bluffs with those combos.

CALLING
1. We do block JJ as well as AA and A4s, so we hold probably the best bluffcatcher
2. We are so high up in our range
3. At some frequency we might be splitting with AJ.

From this summarization, I prefer just folding even if its highly exploitative play, I believe vs the pool its the highest ev play.

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