Hand is here: https://www.boomplayer.com/31186532_74E68F0230
Preflop standard 3bet vs unknown player.
On the flop cbet for value, could also bet smaller but this flop is not dry and not so great for our range as let's say AA2 rainbow etc + I'm OOP so I don't want to give too great pot odds and reraising oportunity. I bet with intention to cbet on the turn and river unless some scar card comes.
Turn is blank, I cbet for value again...
River sucks because 9d completes bunch of villains strong draws. I know that there is lot of dead cards both on the board (Qd and Jd blocks lot of his suited hands that can be used as flat vs my 3bet) and that Ad in my hand so lot of his possible flush combos is blocked but cbeting seems way too thin here. I just don't think I will get called by worse hands reasonable percent of time and the last thing I want is to get reraised on this river and fold quite a lot of equity.
I chose to X and kinda hoped for X back or relatively small bet. When villain bets like 80% I know he either has flush, straight or some kind of bluff but that's the thing....I just don't think he has many bluffs here in this runout as that 9d comes on the river. He should fold his gutshots and floats by the turn and I also don't think he will turn to bluff hands like TP with weaker kicker or AJ...
I just feel like this bet is mostly flushes and possibly T9s or 98s as a bluff as these hands don't have enough showdown value in the spot.
Now - it's pretty close with AdQx...If he only bluffs T9s it's fold, if he bluffs T9s and 98s and possibly more, it's easy call...I was also thinking about turning the hand to bluff with nuts flush blocker but it seemd way too crazy but when I think about it, it doesn't seems as bad as I don't have enough bluffs on rivers like these and SPR is also good to do it. I would need like 53% FEq if I shoved which should not be problem in this spot..
What would your line be here guys?