SB: $16.00 (Hero)
UTG lost and shows a straight, Nine to King.
SB wins $30.71
Rake is $1.45
Hi...do you think this line is alright?
I have 3 questions about this spot:
1. What range would you cbet on this flop?
2. What cbet sizing would you use on the flop and later streets?
3. Can we X/C with some of our FDs on the turn as mentioned in the text below?
4. Is it better to go all-in by the turn or to play this hand to the river?
Sorry for the length of this post, I just got carried away by my ideas while analyzing this hand and ended up with analyzing the spot range-wise instead of exact hand :-D
Played vs unknown
Preflop I 3bet AQo sometimes and sometimes I call as deafult. I 3bet like 50% of times, it's pretty thin in these positions tho.
The flop isn't too great for our our range. If villain flats something like this: JJ-99,AQs-ATs,JTs,T9s,AKo and we 3bet JJ+,ATs+,A5s-A2s,KQs,AQo our equity on this flop is roughly 40%. It can change a bit depending on villains flat range. If villain flats hands like QTs, QJs, KTs it's even bit worse tho.
Therefore I decided to play passively with most of my range and cbet big (65-75% sizing) with my best value hands (AA with heart, KK with heart, QQ with heart, JJ and KQs) and my best bluffs - combo draws,AhTh,Ah2h-Ah5h...I will be value heavy on the flop and I won't have quite enough bluffs but I think it's ok since I'm OOP and flop is better for villain.
Should we bet even larger with this range and be willing to shove on the turn? Because it's quite hard to barrel with hands like Ah2h-Ah5h and AhTh on the turn with awkward SPR. On the turn I would have roughly $12 while pot would be $8 so it would be like SPR 1.5, if I bet with my FDs again for something like 2/3 - 5.5 so pot would be $13.5 and my stack $6.5. If villain shoves in the turn vs my second barell I will have roughly 20% pot odds and it would suck to call with FD as my equity isn't quited enough to call profitably but when I fold I give up quite a lot of equity. If villain calls again and I miss I don't have enough bullets to bluff on the river and I also can't X/C with my missed FDs.
Or shall we just X/C if we miss with our FD on the turn ? Fck...I got too deep into this sh :-D**
I'm not sure if it's good idea to bet even with KhKx and QhQx for value, what do you think? And what would you advise to bet as a bluff in this spot? Combo draws are obvious, not sure about AhTh, we have good equity (58%) but It should be good to X/C with this hand some % of time also, so we are not capped to mid hands/weaker draws once we check and not having any FD.
Given my strategy I chose AcQh as X/C as we have OESD to nuts and overcard (not too useful given the ranges tho as A or Q also improves villains equity a lot) but I don't want to build big pot with this hand given the ranges + there is risk we can get reraised by sets, straight (if villain calls KQs preflop), combo draws and possibly two pair which sucks as SPR is lower in 3bet pots and implied odds are worse + some outs even have reversed implied odds.
Turn is pretty simple...call again, donk doesn't make sense as well as X/R doesn't make sense because this card is blank and there's no reason to bluff vs villains range and we don't even have value range to reraise with given I play polarized on the flop.
Call is mandatory vs the sizing and we also have some implied odds for sure vs QX hands and some bluffs possibly.
On the river I don't think it makes sense to lead as I think villain will probably fold everything except QX, maybe he could call with set vs tiny bet but I think he can also turn some hands (AJs maybe) into bluff once we X on the river and therefore we can win more imo. With Qx he will bet himself and we can shove over his bet easily with the SPR.
Villain had QdTd BTW.