MP: $10.00 (Hero)
Reads on villain: Reg, 18/10, 3bets only 1.9% over 3.5k hands, AF is 1.5, and he is a winner on the limit at 5 bb/100 according to statname.
My river line is spewy and it´s smth I´m trying to remove from my game. It´s a case where I put a lot of emphasis on the KQs he can still have that will call me down, think villain could even reluctantly call some KXs, doesn´t properly weigh this relative to the range that crushes me, gets afraid of being shoved if I bet smaller, than make a greedy, bet and forget shove just to end up thinking what (realistically) worse hands would really call me there to make this a value bet?
Anyway, I don´t want to focus too much on the mistake, but on the correct line: My opinion is that the range that calls flop and turn on this line is KK, QQ, any AXcc, AdQd, any JTs, any KQs, KJs or KTs. Villain doesn´t have a re-raising range IP on the flop or a raising range on the turn as I don´t think it makes any sense. 55 is a clear x/f. But if we do have QQ? Equilab says we do have 50.88% equity. Do we still x/f as villains probsbly don´t really bet KQ here? Or is it a x/c and my assumption is too tight?