Setting up river bluff frequencies

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Setting up river bluff frequencies

Hey, I am wondering if I have this correct....lets say we get a board of Q-10-2-3 rainbow is the flop and turn and it is HJ vs BB...
We estimate that the big blind will call on the river with 23 hands and they will fold 19 hands.
So is it correct to say that we can bluff with 45 to 50% of our bluffs because the big blind will fold 45% of the time? Or do we have to take into account our river value bets and checks also?

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