Should we bluff this river? What do you think of my assumptions on how villain plays his range?
Posted by HaAbDe
Posted by HaAbDe posted in Low Stakes
Should we bluff this river? What do you think of my assumptions on how villain plays his range?
We're playing at NL2 vs a fish(no stats for him and so we don't know what kind of fish he is). He is UTG(6max) and Open limps and call our iso from BTN. Let's say his continuing range is sth like 33%. It could be more or it could be less but I need to put sth in Flopzilla and so I choose sth which is close to 30%.
Flop is Ah 9c 7c. We bet 60% bet and he calls
Turn is Js. We bet 60% and he calls
River is 3h
Preflop that is the range I gave him:
So, in the flop I put in his calling range everything that is bottom pair+ and also gutshots, oesd and fds. I also included all King high bdfds and didn't include 2pair and sets because he raises those most of the time imo(now sometimes he slowplays those but in order to simplify things I didn't include them). I don't know what he would do with 66-22 though. I think he folds those and that's why I didn't include them in calling range.
For turn, I gave him all top pairs and also middle pairs of JT and J8s because they have the 1card gutshots. He folds imo the KJs and QJs. He calls imo also the pairs of 9 and of 7 which have the 1card gutshots and those are the T9, 98, T7s, 87s
For river, about 55% of his range is top pair+ which he continues with, and from the rest, about 33% are those weaker pairs he called on the turn and 10% is the missed fds. I think that's a good spot to bluff here because he folds everything that's not top pair or better. So what do you think about the ranges I assigned him in every street? What did I do wrong? And what about the river? Should we bluff?
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