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Tough Turn Spot

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Tough Turn Spot

$2/$5

Hero ~$1000
Villian ~$450
UTG ~$350

Read on Villian:Solid TAG player. Was only 3-betting AQo+ and JJ+ at that point. When he hit his hand though he was willing to go with it.

UTG opens to $15. Villian in UTG+2 3-bets to $35. Hero in BB dealt Jd10d. I complete in the BB. UTG calls so three ways to a flop. (Pot ~$110)

Flop: 8d Qd Jc

I check. UTG checks. Villian c-bets $85. I call and UTG calls as well.(~$365 now in pot)

Turn: 8d Qd Jc Ah

I check. UTG checks. Villian shoves for the rest of his stack ($305). I go into the tank.

My thoughts at the time were as follows:

-He probably just spiked his ace, which means my jack is without a doubt not good anymore (it could've been good on the flop against AK)

-The ace does give me three more outs (any K now completes my straight)

-I was worried about what UTG was calling with preflop and now on the flop. If he had a pair less than QQ, it was without a doubt not good anymore unless he had a set, and I had blockers to JJ and 1010. So it didn't make sense for him to call the flop with a pair. This made me think he had some sort of suited connectors (definitely something he'd open with) that also had blockers to my flush draw. He also had donk bet flops several times with two-pair/top-pair type hands, so that made me think connected diamonds (maybe 67 with backdoor straights) made a lot of sense here.

-At this point, I regretted not check-raising the flop. I think if I had check/raised the flop to $250 or so and taken the lead in the hand, I maybe get him off of one pair hands and AK (unless their both diamonds) and almost definitely get UTG to fold. And if he calls my equity has to be decent.

I folded. UTG folded, and Villian collects. Not sure if fold was the right move or not but I did run his exact holding (he showed) through equilab, so I have the percentages. At the end of the day I only lost $110 on the hand, so I cannot be too upset. But I'm not sure I was getting the right odds on the turn bet. I'm going to wait to reveal his exact holding until I get some insight.

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