So I squeeze 15 BB's, fish calls me IP. Flop comes T93 with flush draw, we are unblocking FD's our AK has no hearts.
Flop pot size is 34 bb's, fish has 50 bb's remaining.
Using a solver it's saying jamming AK here is +EV (2.5) even when the solver giving 100% of 22-88 in villains calling range which I view as kind of pessimistic. I'd say maybe they call 75% of their baby pairs here?
It didn't give JQs/KQ so I manually added those in to GTO+ grid calling range bc I think most recs will snap off st8 draw and KQ here.
I was hoping anyone could give a little insight into this spot because my brain is having a hard time understanding it. If we jam and they snap with 22 we still have 6 outs to improve to better pair. It's a value jam vs some of their range and has 25% equity vs most of their 1 pair holdings.
So if the solver says our EV is 2.9 it basically means if we open fold our EV is 0 - so by jamming AK we are taking back 2.5 EV of the current pot which is 34.
Obviously we will get some bad flops sometimes with our AK here but even on T93 the solver is showing positive EV with jamming.
Also a lot of the fringe range like K3s/A3o I gave 25% weights as their defends pre flop.
Thank for any insight you can provide.