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Weird spot w NFD, do I have the right price here?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Weird spot w NFD, do I have the right price here?

Live 1-3

So, this is an area where my weak math skills can hurt me a bit... Looking for some feedback

HJ limps w $277, he's a recreational player in the pool. He can be kinda splashy and unpredictable. But typically has a piece of something when getting after it.

Hero raise KTdd CO to $17 Covering
BB calls and is a weak recreational with $380
HJ calls

Flop = $45
Ad6d8s

Checks to us, we C-Bet $30, BB calls, HJ raises to $120 leaving $140 behind

Hero?

So, first of all the BB can certainly have some slow plays here. Our room rewards high hand bonuses for quads for example, so the fish tend to really like to take their sets to the river. Not always but it is a factor in play here. He's overall going to have a very wide range however, probably calling flop with all Ax, 8x and maybe 6x, most gutters with a diamond in them etc

HJ raising range I'm guessing looks something like 88, 66, A6suited and offsuit, A8suited and offsuit. probably capable of 97dd, 75dd. I don' think he is playing Qx flushes like this. Prob would only be raising the nutflush draw, which we have.

It seems ludicrous to me, but I think this is a fold due to the HJ not having enough money behind. I don't think we realize anywhere near all our equity, as I suspect a turn jam coming quite often if not 100%. Even if he does have the 97dd or 75dd, I think we face a turn jam and have to fold due to the strength of his range(being ahead of 2 combos not being enough bluffs to give us enough showdown to call). Plus, the 8d is not clean by any means, and it makes his narrow range a boat relatively quite often.

The player behind having money is a factor, but I think he will likely just fold top pair often, jam slowplayed sets/two pair, and occasionally continue with a lower flush(the dream, kinda). I think he can recognize that a higher flush may be in play and may even fold some of the lower ones, but to be honest there arent many to begin with when we have the Td in hand. They also take away from our outs. So I folded. But felt very uncertain about it and took note of to inspect away from table. If the HJ had more money behind I obv always continue.

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