turn decision in big straddle pot

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turn decision in big straddle pot

so i had an interesting table dynamic yesterday playing with members of the canadian national soccer team. One of them was especially oblivious to the game and was calling very wide and pretty much any 7-8x isolation I made.

so a passive nitty lady straddle the bttn, we get 4 callers(one of which is the splashy soccer player, and he has 700-800 behind, I cover)
I have AdQd in the LJ, and raise to $45
a passive player on my left calls (I perceive him calling to be actually a bit tighter than he usually would because i think he recognizes me as raising very tight and playing reasonably well. he has $200ish behind after calling

shockingly, everyone else folds

Flop is Ts7s3c Pot = $120ish
I remember studying a spot similar to this in PIO, and am considering betting around 1/3 on flop and jamming turn.

I tank a bit and bet $45, villain calls
Turn 5o.

I think about it some more, and consider that because villain isnt full stacked, he might be reraising/jamming AK preflop, which leads me to believe maybe this villain is more pair heavy than i first considered.

i decide on a check, he checks back
the river is a T
I check, and he pretty quickly sticks it in.

Based on him sticking it in, i am super confident I am beat and probably saved a stack not jamming. I have watched him play super passive in large pots with combo draws(he showed me his hole cards so I could play along ^.^ )

Rethinking this hand however, i think because the villain is so passive, he probably does have AK in his range, and certainly can call flop with it. Maybe jamming turn was the best option.

12 combos AK
1 AA
2 KK
3 QQ
6 JJ
3 TT
6 99(folds 4 combos?)

folds 12 of 26 combos 46% of range. only need 43% folds, and he prob has some other hands im not considering like QKs, AJs. worst case its around break even, but in live players can make some pretty tight folds, so think i shouldve jammed.

Sorry for the stream of consciousness btw, this was alot of me working out my thoughts on paper. So feel free to put your two cents in.

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