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2nd Nuts IP River Spot (300bb deep)

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

2nd Nuts IP River Spot (300bb deep)

Hi everyone, first post on RIO. I've been going through the Ground Up PLO course (loving it) and playing and ran into this spot. For some reason, I can't get past my impasse.

I've played a thousand+ hands against Villain, but I don't trust my HUD against him anymore, he's shown vast improvement over the past couple months. He used to be a whale, and now I think he's capable of CRAI this river. He's also capable of folding rivers to 3-barrels from a strong range (which happened earlier in the session).

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/69nGbwU

I realize I'm blocking QJTX wraps on the turn, but what calls a pot sized raise on the turn and a river bet on that rundown (QJTX hits)?
Am I bet calling? Bet folding? If so, sizing considerations?

My in game thought was between 1/3, 1/2, and check. I obviously settled on check, which seems criminal, but I can't put him on a calling hand with QJTX hitting. If he's still got on aggro-whale in him, do we go with 1/3 with the intention of calling?

I'd love to hear some thoughts.

Thanks

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