500 zoom - AKKQ 3 bet pot OOP on 923r 7fd

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500 zoom - AKKQ 3 bet pot OOP on 923r 7fd

BN: $559.70
SB: $1009.31
BB: $539.70 (Hero)
UTG: $836.18
HJ: $750.94
CO: $485.14
Preflop ($7.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt K K A Q
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $10, SB folds, Hero raises to $32.50, BN calls $22.50
Flop ($72.50) 3 9 2 (2 Players)
Hero bets $45, BN calls $45
Turn ($162.50) 3 9 2 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $120, BN raises to $482.20, and is all in

$342.20 to call. 

This spot seems highly villian dependant. I wonder if I'm not better off just betting pot on the turn. It seems a little bit deep for it, with an SPR of <2 I like it a lot more than in this case with an SPR of about 3.

Once he jams I need to put $340 in to the pot to win $1080 so need 31%. Against his two pair hands which are by far his most likely made hands that beat me I have 16.4%. Against his strongest and most live draws, say T986cc I have 42.5%. When he has a two pair hand I get back $177 for a net result of -$163. When he has his strongest of draws I get back $459 for a net result of +$119. That means he needs to have a hand worse than two pair 57.8% of the time for calling to be +EV. 

Like I initially thought, HIGHLY opponent dependant. Some opponents will never jam pair + draw combo here, some will jam it a lot because of their immediate odds + fold equity. Also some opponents will often slowplay two pair on this flop, some will always raise 23+. I could swayed either way on both betting the turn and calling the shove.

Is there anything about this hand that I'm missing and should factor in when deciding whether or not to call? I know people will want reads on villain but I find when discussing hands it's more beneficial to talk about what to do against a range of different villains and which adjustments to make against each type.



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