50PLO - SB vs CO, x/r TURN…

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50PLO - SB vs CO, x/r TURN…

BN: $64.90
SB: $50 (Hero)
BB: $102.81
UTG: $38.67
HJ: $97.78
CO: $56.27
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 8 A 8 Q
UTG folds, HJ raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, BN folds, Hero calls $1.25, BB folds
Flop ($5.00) 4 A J (3 Players)
Hero checks, HJ bets $2.50, CO folds, Hero calls $2.50
Turn ($10.00) 4 A J Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, HJ bets $3.50, Hero raises to $20.05, HJ calls $16.55
River ($50.10) 4 A J Q T (2 Players)
Hero bets $25.95, and is all in

Final Pot
Two days ago I was curious on a similar situation (http://www.runitonce.com/plo/50plo-bn-vs-bb-flop-set-ipwhat-abo/) if the aggressor could- 2nd barrel IP because I was seeing that caller didn’t fold much EQ and at the same time he SHOULD x/r perhaps 1/3 of his range. At that time Hero was the aggressor IP but now Hero is the caller OOP. So now…I decided to x/r

-Villain could fold perhaps good EQ (~30%) OTT after we x/r
-We can have 35% EQ (enough I think for shoving a lot of river cards) vs a reasonable calling range AKQ+, KJhh+,44+:(TJ+,hh,T9+)
- OTR Villain could have 44+ and we need him to fold 1/3 of the time (no EQ vs his range). We block AA,QQ so if we are correct half of his range could be <JJ. Does he fold??

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