Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (3 Players)
SB: $151.44 (Hero)
BB puts the "AG" in TAG. 35/22. 14% 3bet to steal, 70% double barrel. (2500 hand sample)
63% fold to steal.
Anecdotally, I think they've studied some fundamentals but end up making spewy plays. I'm not sure; I'm so used to my opponents being weak-tight that anytime someone actually finds aggression regularly postflop, I don't know how to draw the line between if they're balanced or spewy.
I would imagine that villain sees me as TAG, perhaps on the nitty side.
Hero is SB with
raises to $3.00,
raises to $19.89,
I suspect this is a very mix-y spot if looking at it through a solver. Lack of backdoor diamonds hurts. Villain's overall tendencies and their 45% bet-when-checked-to made me feel like x/r was a good line here: either I see another card before inflating the pot or I get two (or more) bets in while I have the nuts. (Check-raising also lets me play a turn with a lower SPR when I'll never be drawing dead.)
Effectively $104.52 left. I really didn't know what to do here. I can't GII without villain being excited about it, but it feels like there are a lot of bad rivers for me. I lightly block the nuts and now have my own gutshot (maybe only to a chop). KQ and 98 are in villain's flop continues, but it's also a strange flop for them to bet/call without being PFR... so I have a hard time putting them on a range. Also consider the fact that their KQxx/98xx rundowns that might call the flop are also liable to be 3bet preflop given how wide they've shown themselves to do that. Figuring out their preflop call, flop bet/call range is just very tricky to me...