Capped range - Facing raise on the river

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Capped range - Facing raise on the river

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) MP: $20.77
CO: $35.30 (Hero)
BN: $77.58
SB: $13.17
BB: $25.00
UTG: $25.00
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is CO with 7 T J Q
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, BN calls $0.85, SB calls $0.75, BB folds
Flop ($2.80) 7 T Q
SB checks, Hero checks, BN bets $2.68, SB calls $2.68, Hero calls $2.68
Turn ($10.84) 7 T Q J
SB checks, Hero checks, BN checks
River ($10.84) 7 T Q J 7
SB checks, Hero bets $3.11, BN raises to $12.75, SB folds, Hero folds
Final Pot BN wins $16.33
Rake is $0.73

The hand is not only interesting for how we should play here, rather how we should play optimal on the river in Villains shoes.

First of all we should have bet here on the flop.

Our range is caped as we didn't bet or x-raise this flop. But still I can't find villain to bluff here that often - not at these stakes, especially as I did block bet here.

I did try to use the Pokerjuice BC-Simulations for telling us how many one- / two pair Queens he has in his range, I think these are the ones he could use to bluff with. If the Sims where right than Villain has a lot of these Queens in his range on the river.

I did give Villain the following range:

Pre: 50% wothout a 2% 3betting range OOP

Flop: TP or better, all wraps, any pair (7,T,Q) with GS

Turn: was check, so we can take out his nut straights w AK

River: same range as on the turn

Villains Value range on the river: could start with 7Q+ = 13% of river range

Villains Checking range on the river: all combos except the value range and hand with an Queen inside = 67% of river range

Villains Air- / Bluffing range on the river: could be all hand with an Queen in it = 20% of river range

Equity vs Villains Value range (incl. Q7, we split with) = 12%
Equity vs his Check- / Air range = 100%, for sure

So I guess as played we should only call if we think he is ever bluffing.

If villain bluffs with all his TP-Combos than the call is +EV 14$, If he never bluffs -EV 9,6$, certainly.

Now after writing all this down, I think in these scenario, even at these stakes the players will have some bluffs in their range, therefore we should call here.

Ok, I did just see that the whole thing with playing optimal in Villains shoes are to complicated for me, atm. Although PJ did tell me to take the following bluffs 4,5% of the river range / 23,5% out of the air range. But how I do get a feel for it, how much of my river range is value, in %? And than how I can find out which combos I do need to bluff with? I did put all QJ in to villains bluffing range = 8% of his river range. So still twice a much bluffs vs GTO bluffs. So I guess if we do have an villain who is capable of buffing, than he will over bluff in that scenario.

Here is a link to the PJ-Sims:
enter link description here
Would you have done the same input?

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