I think I should shove here. What do you think?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

I think I should shove here. What do you think?

Blinds: $2.50/$5.00 (6 Players) BN: $270.00
SB: $500.00 (Hero)
BB: $929.88
UTG: $1042.82
MP: $462.32
CO: $500.00
Preflop ($7.50) Hero is SB with A J 9 8
UTG folds, MP raises to $17.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $15.00, BB raises to $70.00, MP calls $52.50, Hero calls $52.50
Flop ($210.00) 3 3 8
Hero checks, BB bets $95.00, MP folds, Hero folds

Seems a little suicidal, but I think that we should be bluffing here some times and this seems like the hand to do it with. Am I missing something, because it intuitively it feels wrong to shove.

If opponent folds all but (3+,AA) the shove is profitable!
(if he calls with 3+,AA,KK) the shove is minus EV

I can see the argument for not having a raising range and flatting all our nut hands so that we can't always be barreled off of our KKxx type hands that would like to peel the flop. And that makes sense to me, but I hate passing up on such a good flop spot for protection of my range given:
1- Opponent doesn't know our strategy
2- Even if he did know our strategy he might not adjust correctly


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