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OTT: overpair, gutshot, and flush draw: ranging villain shove?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

OTT: overpair, gutshot, and flush draw: ranging villain shove?

Sorry about the formatting here: I guess WPN (ACR) hands just don't format nicely for RIO posts? Shrug. If anybody knows what to do (I use DriveHUD), let me know. Anyway:

PL Omaha $0.50(BB)
BTN ($57.97)
HERO ($50.25)
BB ($86.54)
UTG ($250.74)
HJ ($61.95)
CO ($75.08)

Dealt to Hero: Qh Ad Jc Qc

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $1, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $3.50, BB Folds, HJ Calls $2.50

I recently moved down to PLO50 to rebuild some dollars and some confidence after a big PLO100 downswing, so the regs (of which HJ seems to be one) are pretty unfamiliar to me and vice versa. I don't think I had enough hands on HJ at the time to make stat-based decisions, but I'd err on the side of calling them tight-ish and just slightly less aggressive than "TAG".

Anyway, I'd been 3betting very actively at this table with a higher-than-my-usual VPIP/PFR, just due to getting a lot of playable hands and 3betting opportunities. So I doubt my 3bet was taken as AA-exclusive.

And as for the decision to 3bet itself: I don't really like to have a SB calling range (unless it's obviously going MW and a squeeze seems inappropriate), and I think this is well worth a VPIP.

Hero SPR on Flop: [6.23 effective]
Flop ($7.50): Td 4c 5s
HERO Bets $3.56 (Rem. Stack: 43.19), HJ Calls $3.56 (Rem. Stack: 54.89)

Pretty dry flop that's neither great nor horrible for me: ~half-pot c-bet, imo.

Turn ($14.62): Td 4c 5s 8c
HERO Bets $10.41 (Rem. Stack: 32.78), HJ Raises To $45.12 (Rem. Stack: 9.77)

Pretty good turn for me, though I guess HJ liked it even more.

How do we range them here, and is a call +EV versus that range?

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