CO: $684.98 (Hero)
In this hand I decided to 2barrel shove turn this hand vs an unknown opponent (anonymous tables) and I'm questioning the EV of this play vs alternative options.
Having a pair in our hand and a Khigh suit, coldcalling is potentially better EV than 3betting?
- Light dry board, SPR of 2.72 after my bet
- I don't necessarly have a range advantage on this board, I think it's pretty close : I will have more overpairs and high cards, he will probably have more two pairs and rundowns
- I CBet 2/3 pot for value and protection with a weak overpair, a BDFD, a BDSD, and good runouts
My equity on turn cards :
- I plan to fold to a checkraise as I will not have enough equity and draws to continue
- I plan to shove on a lot of good turns (any diamond, Q,8,J).
When he check calls, his range can (it's of course an assumption) include a lot of :
- rundowns (567, 456)
- 8 out straight draws (56)
- overpairs QQ and KK (as I believe with this stack size he would 4bet all his AAxx preflop).
- top set can be in his check/calling range, as he could slowplay it given how dry the board is.
- The 8d gives me a ton of additional equity : 6 outs to the nuts (Q, 7), 9 outs to the 2nd nut flush
Here's a quick PJ simulation I did on this scenario.
What's your feeedback on this hand?
Thanks a lot for your feedback, and GL at the tables!