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PL200 - 3B Pot - Analysing a 2barrel turn shove

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PL200 - 3B Pot - Analysing a 2barrel turn shove

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (5 Players) UTG: $204.16
CO: $684.98 (Hero)
BN: $479.32
SB: $355.42
BB: $316.08
Preflop ($3.00) Hero is CO with 9 J K J
UTG raises to $7.00, Hero raises to $22.00, 2 folds, BB calls $20.00, UTG calls $15.00
Flop ($67.00) 3 T 4
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $44.00, BB folds, UTG calls $44.00
Turn ($155.00) 3 T 4 8
UTG checks, Hero bets $155.00

Hey guys!

In this hand I decided to 2barrel shove turn this hand vs an unknown opponent (anonymous tables) and I'm questioning the EV of this play vs alternative options.

Preflop

Having a pair in our hand and a Khigh suit, coldcalling is potentially better EV than 3betting?

Flop
- Light dry board, SPR of 2.72 after my bet
- I don't necessarly have a range advantage on this board, I think it's pretty close : I will have more overpairs and high cards, he will probably have more two pairs and rundowns
- I CBet 2/3 pot for value and protection with a weak overpair, a BDFD, a BDSD, and good runouts

My equity on turn cards :

  • I plan to fold to a checkraise as I will not have enough equity and draws to continue
  • I plan to shove on a lot of good turns (any diamond, Q,8,J).

When he check calls, his range can (it's of course an assumption) include a lot of :
- Tx
- rundowns (567, 456)
- 8 out straight draws (56)
- overpairs QQ and KK (as I believe with this stack size he would 4bet all his AAxx preflop).
- top set can be in his check/calling range, as he could slowplay it given how dry the board is.

Turn
- The 8d gives me a ton of additional equity : 6 outs to the nuts (Q, 7), 9 outs to the 2nd nut flush

Here's a quick PJ simulation I did on this scenario.

What's your feeedback on this hand?

Thanks a lot for your feedback, and GL at the tables!

Guillaume

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