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PL50 regpokes

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

PL50 regpokes

CO: $83.59
BN: $61.19 (Hero)
SB: $116.39
BB: $51.15
UTG: $50
HJ: $76.87
BB is a regular, not particulary tricky. 4% 3bet overall, many high cards. SB is 50/4 fish with 12/16/13 aggFQ/street.
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 9 K K J
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.75, SB folds, BB raises to $5.50, Hero calls $3.75
I expect BB to realise SB being the reason why I open for a pot.
Flop ($11.75) 9 7 Q (2 Players)
BB bets $8, Hero calls $8
I expect villain to cbet his entire range here, given he is a overcbetting 3bet pots OOP (extremely high frequency, although not a huge sample). Definitely too frequent for his 4% 3betting range which is mostly BBBB hands. With 4 nut outs, good blockers for many turns and much wider range on such dynamic board I think this is an easy flat.
Turn ($27.75) 9 7 Q 6 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $11.25
Turn is most often much better for my range than the 3bettor. Not raising OTF I still have all straight combos (even if weaker) and some made hands. Given that I have KKJ9, I am blocking most hands that cbet flop and x/call OTT. Thus I am expecting a raise or a fold. Having more T8 in my range I decide that I wouldnt need much protection vs BBBB hands so betting more does not accomplish much. I decide to bet turn, and if called once with this sizing, continue larger on any 2345, 7 9 as a bluff, and T K for value. 8 and Q are debatable.

Alternative I got offered were checking back the turn and deciding what to bluff OTR.

What do you think?

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