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PLO100 depp, 2nd nuts facing river shove

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

PLO100 depp, 2nd nuts facing river shove

CO: CO: $191.20
BN: Hero: $437.88
SB: SB: $578.12
BB: BB: $729.88
HJ: UTG: $1099.16
Villain is a strong, aggressive reg. I know this because he is a regular contributor to the RIO PLO forums. I won't mention his name, but if he recognizes the hand and wants to add his two cents I would love to hear his thoughts.

HUD stats: (497 hands)

29/20/7
(flop) FCB 25%
(turn) FCB 50%

(also, its not super relevant but this hand was played at PLO100 deep, and all the stack/bet sizes are half of what this hand history says)
Preflop ($3.00) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt K 9 3 7
UTG folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $8, SB folds, BB calls $6
Think this is a fairly standard button open double suited
Flop ($17.00) Q J 5 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12, BB calls $12
Again I think this is a pretty standard Cbet, gutter+FD
Turn ($41.00) T (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $24, BB raises to $112, Hero calls $88
Turn I feel like is a pretty mandatory Cbet, he can have so many hands that are not the nut straight after check calling the flop, worst case scenario if I get raised I have two flush draws (and know that this is a tough player who has raises in his range here that my str8 is still ahead of)
River ($265.00) 7 (2 Players)
BB bets $261.40
Brick the river.

So my thought process on the river is something like: I mean he could easily have the nut str8 here, obviously part of his range. However, I feel like lots of A-Ks are betting the turn on such a gross draw heavy double FD board, so I think that somewhat discounts the likelihood of having A-K.) Secondly, the river bet was a snap shove for full pot. My initial reaction was that it reeked of a bluff, I find at these limits this kind of snap bet full pot timing/sizing tell is usually pretty effective. My problem was against a really good player I knew he could be trying to use a reverse tell. Anyway, thoughts on all streeets? especially the river?

thanks

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