Villain is a tough regular playing 35/20/8.6 over 2.2k hands and some post-flop stats (single-raised pots) are: fold/call/raise vs. c-bet 63/13/25 (out of 32). Overall AF 3.0 and A% by street 36/30/20. Sometimes I see him do things I would rate as spewy, but that mostly concerns pre-flop (calling trashy pocket pairs, calling trashy hands vs. 3-bets, and 3-b and 4-b a bit spewy). Overall he calls a ton on the BTN (for example, he only folds 51% vs. CO steals). Post-flop though I feel like his thought-processes, lines, and hand-reading are all very good. Something that may be important to determine his pre-flop range is that there are two big fishes at the table (UTG and BB).
I think anyone can see the problem I have with his river raise. "Normal" reasoning would suggest he can't have much of a hand after checking back the turn. Imo either air, or like a (nut) flush he was semi-bluffing with, which is why I bet only halfish otr. Given my read on his skills though, I find it highly unlikely that he would pull a somewhat random bluff here. (The only thing I can think of is that he sees my bet, and in the heat of the moment thinks "that's a weak/scared looking block-bet by a hand like AAhh or 8x, so I'll raise".)
So yeah obviously my question is, what do you guys think I should do on the river? But it also got me thinking... how good/bad would his play be with TT/T8? Because after thinking about it for a while, I realized that this is usually a spot where you bluff-raise one-and-done, so I guess for range-balancing purposes checking back TT/T8 wouldn't actually be so crazy. Plus it's deceptive! Lastly: is there any merit to any other play on the flop than c-betting? Given how we're somewhat deep and he seems to give people a tough time when he's IP by raising against c-bets frequently. I guess not, my hand needs protection on this board, right?
Any thoughts appreciated, I think it's an interesting hand, hopefully so do you.