River Bluff Catch Situation with Nut Flush 50 PLO

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River Bluff Catch Situation with Nut Flush 50 PLO

Ignition Poker:
CO - $50 - (Hero) As 5s 6d 5d
Btn - $28 - 50/25 over 4 hands
SB - 38.50 - 50/25 over 4 hands

Preflop:
Hero raises to $1.75, Btn calls $1.75, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop (Qs 2s 7h) ~$5.50
SB checks, Hero bets $2.22, Btn calls $2.22

Turn (~$9.50) 4s
Hero bets $5.18, Btn calls

River ($18.87) 4c
Hero checks, Btn shoves all in for $19.86, Hero???

So first and foremost, my software for downloading the hand histories is on my windows laptop that is getting fixed right now (I overheated it and something blew running too many Pio sims). I took a picture of the river situation and stats, and estimating betting amounts. I know I bet around 40% pot on the flop 3-way and barreled 55-60% pot on turn. Then, faced a pot shove on the river.

What do you guys think about the flop c-bet sizing? Nick Johnson posted on one of my forum posts about betting 1/3rd pot in some situations multi-way, and do yal think this is the spot to do it? I actually think it might not be in this situation. If we take a flop 2/3rds sizing, we can probably get a lot of Qx from the btn to fold on the flop, where by betting small they will call a lot. But by betting small, we probably keep in a lot more FD's that we are dominating that we can get value from later on, where with the weak Qx hands, if our opponent doesn't improve to 2p on the turn, we can probably bet him off of those. What do yal think?

Turn is a standard value bet. I feel villain is probably calling turn with sets, made flushes, and maybe hands like AKQ7 with Ks. Also, maybe true for AKQ4 with Ks. Maybe he could float KKxx with Ks. On the river, the 4 pairs improving small freq Q4 combos and QQ, 77. 77 can prob be in his preflop range more often if he is a recreational player. Don't know yet with my 4 hand sample. If he's really fish, maybe he could be value shoving a King high flush, but he is probably shoving a lot of boats and Ks bluff hands, but not sure how much those are represented in a random 50 PLO player on Ignition. It feels like to me this is a gross fold against maybe a population without enough bluffs here, but needing to be good only around 32% of the time, do yal think this is good enough to call? If we have the Nut flush with a Q, would this be an easy bluff catcher?

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